How Words Could End a War

AS diplomats stitch together a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, the most depressing feature of the conflict is the sense that future fighting is inevitable. Rational calculation suggests that neither side can win these wars. The thousands of lives and billions of dollars sacrificed in fighting demonstrate the advantages of peace and coexistence; yet still both sides opt to fight. This small territory is the world's great symbolic knot. “Palestine is the mother of all problems” is a common refrain among people we have interviewed across the Muslim world: from Middle Eastern leaders to fighters in the remote island jungles of Indonesia; from Islamist senators in Pakistan to volunteers for martyrdom on the move from Morocco to Iraq. Some analysts see this as a testament to the essentially religious nature of the conflict. But research we recently undertook suggests a way to go beyond that. For there is a moral logic to seemingly intractable religious and cultural disputes. These conflicts cannot be reduced to secular calculations of interest but must be dealt with on their own terms, a logic very different from the marketplace or realpolitik.

The economic importance of marine angler expenditures in the United States.

In 1998, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a series of marine angler expenditure surveys in the coastal regions of the United States (U.S.) to evaluate marine recreational fishing expenditures and the financial impacts of these expenditures in each region and the U.S. as a whole. In this report, we use the previously estimated expenditure estimates to assess the total financial impact of anglers’ saltwater expenditures. Estimates are provided for sales, income, employment, and tax impacts for each coastal state in the U.S. Aggregate estimates are also provided for the entire U.S., excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and Texas. Direct, indirect, and induced effects associated with resident and non-resident angler expenditures were estimated using a regional input-output modeling system called IMPLAN Pro. Nationwide, recreational saltwater fishing generated over $30.5 billion in sales in 2000, nearly$12.0 billion in income, and supported nearly 350,000 jobs. Approximately 89 cents of every dollar spent by saltwater anglers was estimated to remain within the U.S. economy. At the state level, many of the goods anglers purchased were imports, and, as such, as little as 44 cents of every dollar stayed in Rhode Island and as much as 80 cents of every dollar stayed in Georgia. In the Northeast, the highest impacts were generated in New Jersey, even though recreational fishing expenditures in Massachusetts and Maryland were considerably higher. In the Southeast, the highest impacts were generated in Florida, and on the Pacific Coast, the highest impacts were generated in California. Expenditures on boat maintenance/expenses generated more impacts than any other expenditure category in the U.S. Expenditures on rods and reels was the single most important expense category in terms of generating impacts in most of the Northeast states. Expenditures on boat expenses generated the highest in most Southeast states, and expenditures for boat accessories produced the highest impacts in most Pacific Coast states.(PDF file contains 184 pages.

Building a World from the Day's Remains: Showing, Telling, Re-presenting

In the meta-discourses of creative writing, the terms ‘showing’ and ‘telling’ are often used to distinguish between different kinds of narrative effect. The distinction can be taken literally: in the former, the narrative creates the impression that the reader is being ‘shown’ the events that unfold, as if present in or witnessing the storyworld. In the latter, the reader will feel that they are being told about the events once removed. However, it is difficult to define, distinguish between and analyse the two terms in a principled manner. This is especially true in the case of first-person (homodiegetic) narration which takes place simultaneously with the events being mediated. In such narrative situations, the effects are blended more overtly, and foregrounded, because a homodiegetic narrator must both ‘show’ and ‘tell’ at the same time. This chapter will augment and extend a model outlined in Scott (2013) by arguing that the classical terms mimesis and diegesis together with taxonomies drawn from stylistic descriptions of discourse presentation (Short 2007) and Text World Theory (Werth 1999, Gavins 2007) can provide a robust means of exploring the difference between the two techniques of representation and their differing effects on the reader’s processes of world-building. Examples are drawn from Kazuo Ishiguro’s Remains of the Day (1989) to illustrate the distinction, and it will be argued that more nuanced understanding of the processes involved at a stylistic and cognitive poetic level will be of benefit to both creative practitioners and critics

Do Options Contain Information About Excess Bond Returns?

There is strong empirical evidence that risk premia in long-term interest rates are time-varying. These risk premia critically depend on interest rate volatility, yet existing research has not examined the impact of time-varying volatility on excess returns for long-term bonds. To address this issue, we incorporate interest rate option prices, which are very sensitive to interest rate volatility, into a dynamic model for the term structure of interest rates. We estimate three-factor affine term structure models using both swap rates and interest rate cap prices. When we incorporate option prices, the model better captures interest rate volatility and is better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that interest rate options contain valuable information about risk premia and interest rate dynamics that cannot be extracted from interest rates alone.